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Housing has been a productive and valuable sector since the 1950s. The mortgage finance system has enabled borrowers to get into housing with very competitive long-term, fixed-rate mortgages like no other nation on earth. We are and will remain the best housed nation on the planet.
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America’s housing stock looks very good relative to housing in all of the other countries, according to a recent study, Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2011.
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“One shouldn’t get too nervous that we have negative numbers in the first quarter,” said Dr. Austin Jaffe, PAR’s consulting economist.
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Housing and the macroeconomy are intertwined once again. During the recent high appreciation years for housing, we often observed housing and the general economy going their separate ways. We now see the more traditional relationship has been restored.
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It is virtually certain that tax credits have no long-term impact on the market, however, the objective is to support the housing market and real estate industry in the short-term. Endorsing a short-term subsidy is one thing; observing a lasting effect is quite another.
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Imagine a simple housing market where all property values are known with certainty. Even though values are not observable, all current prices would be “correct” (i.e., identical) and all future prices would be perfectly predictable. In such a market, price always equals value.
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PAR’s consulting economist Dr. Austin Jaffe says the economy and the unemployment rate need to rebound in order for the real estate market to get stronger.
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Repossessions by lenders are increasing in all but two states. Federal government efforts such as the Making Homes Affordable program have been slow to work and have led to delays in lender actions, causing further backlogs.
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Thursday, Feb. 9, 2012
